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Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season/August
August Week One 99L.INVEST Yay, NHC predicts medium-risk for development, developed from the northern remnants of 98L. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:36, 1 August 2008 (UTC) :It's not remnants, it IS 98L. Tell them to look at a satellite archive and see how stupid they are. -Winter123 04:33, 2 August 2008 (UTC) ::Total model dissagreement here. Some models head it into the open sea and toward Europe, while others head it as far west as the eastern Gulf. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:27, 2 August 2008 (UTC) :::Somewhat impressive. I wouldn't be shocked if this becomes something. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:47, 2 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Although there's a moderate risk of development, satelite imagery shows...literally a few light rotating clouds? - Enzo Aquarius 04:24, 3 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Looks like it's developed a little cloud cover over its circulation. Still doesn't look hugely promising that it'll end up doing anything. --Patteroast 13:54, 3 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Based on WV id say it has no chance, at least for 3 days or so. -Winter123 22:12, 3 August 2008 (UTC) Why was it dropped again? Its north of PR and holding together and headed for Florida. Watch out this could pull a katrina. -Winter123 18:31, 5 August 2008 (UTC) :It could what??! All models (12/12) predict its remnants to turn northwards before hitting Florida. In fact even the remnants of 90L has a 5x better chance of pulling a Katrina. Please do not make such cataclysmic pronouncements! I only predict ten re-Katrinas for the entire rest of this century. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:10, 5 August 2008 (UTC) ::only 10? yeah id like to see 10 storms hit new orleans as a cat 3 in the next 100 years. Unless you mean 10 hurricanes hitting FL in 100 years, then thats possible but unlikely. 10 TS's is likely. -Winter123 18:40, 6 August 2008 (UTC) :::I recall only five in the entire historical database that had any significant effect on the New Orleans area (1893, 1909, 1915, Betsy and Katrina). This thing's just scattered showers right now and wind shear sucks. I personally try to stay away from the apocryphal, but that's just me. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:29, 7 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: Off Georgia (US state) CMC, GFS, and mm5fsu33a all predict something significant out of this, entering the Gulf Stream and strengthening. You can't say for sure that the other models ''don't develop something out of this, either. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:53, 6 August 2008 (UTC) :What????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? West Virginia is 100% sunny, and about 6 hours ago when you posted that, it had some high clouds that blew away. You're posting 100 aois every day with the hope of one being right. stop it. But if you're referring to the trough moving towards bermuda, i'd say 2% chance. Still not AoI worthy. -Winter123 18:42, 6 August 2008 (UTC) ::Winter, he's doin' it for attention, just ignore him. If we ignore the silly stuff, hopefully he'll get sick of it and quit. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:11, 7 August 2008 (UTC) :::What I meant was this (the system coming off of South Carolina/Florida at 60h), and also note the thing coming off of Africa at 90h, although since nobody likes those, I'll just stop posting them until they hit a coastline, okay? 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:11, 7 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Yeah i see that, but how is that west virginia? If you said something like Potential AoI: Florida 60 hours" it would make more sense. What is forecasted on that model doesn't even exist yet. It's the tail end of a front that will spin up when it sits over the gulf stream. And about african waves. Their presentation over land has NO impact on how they will do in the water. I even believed a few of your posts but then they died the next day. So just wait and see. It's not like theres land out there anyway -Winter123 02:10, 8 August 2008 (UTC) :::::That model appears to be forecasting future overall weather patterns and in analyzing those weather patterns foresaw the formation of areas of low pressure or disturbed weather. These systems don't exist yet, but this particular model thinks they will. I prefer waiting until a disturbance actually exists before I start postulating on what it might or might not do. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:54, 8 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::I like to call it backtracking, in which I play the forward animation, and when the system appears, I slowly rewind it and follow the pre-system until it comes to its initial position at 0h. I do this becasue I often also track thunderstorms on radar to see where they originated and tropical cyclones' remnants ''after they dissapate. Now, let's shift your attention to the East Pacific, where I recently succesfully predicted using AoIs: Kika, Hernan, 95E, and 96E; not to be outdone, Eric (sky) also predicted 93C and 94E. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:12, 8 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::Get over yourself! EP storms are very easy to predict. They spin off the itcz in a very easily distinguishable cluster, become an invest, then move WNW and die in cold water. -Winter123 16:23, 10 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Looking at the latest CMC run, it merges what's left of 99L with this system (over North Carolina), and also turns what looks like the remnants of Edouard into a hurricane off the US east coast, and also turns what's left of the AoI near Cape Verde and that system over Africa into two new systems. The tropics have exploded! 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:31, 8 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::There are NO remnants of edouard! It died over the NM/TX border, if you check satellite archives you will see this -Winter123 16:23, 10 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::Now that it finally exists, I've re-named it. Only CMC gives it a good forecast, but there are more expected to follow, and even the remnants of Edouard might develop. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:10, 9 August 2008 (UTC) Well, you're right, an area of low pressure now exists in the western Atlantic but it's forecast to head northeast and the wind shear is abyssimal up that way, blowing in excess of 50 knots. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:28, 9 August 2008 (UTC) What storm off Georgia? There's clear skies. Use your eyes man! The ULL over Toronto has a better chance than "off georgia". -Winter123 16:24, 10 August 2008 (UTC) :Told ya the wind shear was a bitch. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:50, 12 August 2008 (UTC) ::It's headed up into cold water without strengthening, but now many models predict development out of the low near Texas/Oklahoma. I'm not ready to post an AoI though because as per request so I'll wait until it hits a coastline. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:48, 12 August 2008 (UTC) Week Two 93L.INVEST AoI: Cape Verde This finally exists as well, with GFS giving it the best forecast and developing several systems. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:10, 9 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: W of Cape Verde NHC has this at medium-risk, models give it the best chance out of the three systems. GFS even turns it into what looks like a cat. 3!! 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:35, 10 August 2008 (UTC) :Dropped to low risk, the AoI chasing it (see immediately above?) has been made medium risk now though. - Salak 00:34, 11 August 2008 (UTC) 93L.INVEST Looks like two of the AoIs (Cape Verde and W of Cape Verde) have sort of merged... NHC puts the whole thing at medium risk of development and that "SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS". --Patteroast 13:14, 11 August 2008 (UTC) :Showing up on NHC's danger graphic, now. "THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO". --Patteroast 19:19, 11 August 2008 (UTC) ::Looks like a TD now! I'd be surprised if this isnt a TD at 5 and TS at 11, and Hurricane within 2 days of that. -Winter123 19:40, 11 August 2008 (UTC) :::Huh? It doesn't look ''that developed. Well, anyway, this will almost certainly be off, but I predict a pass near Bermuda as a cat. 3 on the 18th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Newark on the 20th. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:19, 11 August 2008 (UTC) ::::It's got a nice rotation to it and conditions seem to be ripening up. We've got ourselves a couple of troublemakers out there and the models point them both at Florida, and being located where they are, I don't like it when the models start saying that. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:54, 12 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Which models are you looking at? Just been looking at these and they seem to have "fishspinner" written all over this system. Of course, it's still early days. - Salak 10:32, 12 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::CMC and GFDL come close to putting it at a bullseye for Bermuda (the astronomical name for bull's eye, by the way, is Aldebaran, the brightest star in Taurus). GFS keeps it weak but heads it for south Florida. I personally think that Bermuda, and the north American east coast from North Carolina to Newfoundland need to watch this closely. Why the east coast? Should I even say it? High pressure variations, conflicting steering currents, and Fu******. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:56, 12 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::It's been pretty much dropped now, and looks disorganised, but it still has a chance. Most models predict a TD, but CMC, the outlier, makes what looks like a cat. 2 or 3 landfall on Newfoundland, yikes! CMC and GFS especially seem to develop a second system that travells south of the main invest and follows 92L. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:48, 14 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::Enh, this one's just piddling around right now. It'll be a while before this becomes anything, if at all. Salek, I was looking at the Colorado State models, which had it where 92L is in 120 hrs. They don't have 93L up anymore (tell you something?) and now recurve 92 over the Bahamas. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:41, 14 August 2008 (UTC) :Ah, okay :) - Salak 04:03, 15 August 2008 (UTC) ::Looks better developed now, un-poofed. It could still hit Atlantic Canada, and if it follows 92L, there could be trouble. See above, 92L and 93L are holding each other's fate in their hands (and the fate of any land they might impact). 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:07, 15 August 2008 (UTC) :::Re-poof? No longer on the NHC map. - Salak 17:06, 16 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Do you see the remnants of 93L? Part of it has joined the trogh extending from Fay to Newfoundland, but the southern half has re-organised and is NE of the Virgin Islands, and some models actually develop that particular system ahead of 94L. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:46, 19 August 2008 (UTC) Potential AoI: Southwest Caribbean NHC has it at low-risk, shower activity has diminished, might head into EPac, might contain remnants of 90L, likely to follow that Costa Rica ITCZ system. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:05, 12 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: South of Newfoundland It just looks like a low pressure swirl, but models develop something out of this, some into what looks like a large TS. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:08, 13 August 2008 (UTC) :CMC predicts the low behind it to explode, but most expect it to be weaker than this one. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:16, 13 August 2008 (UTC) ::Do you see that swirl of low pressure off the East coast? That's what I'm talking about. It's about to enter cold water, but we may have subtropical development here. It's already a strong extratropical system, forecast to bring heavy rain to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Most models bring it up to TS strength, but half of the models want to bring it up to hurricane strength as well, but it will probably be subtropical if anything. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:53, 14 August 2008 (UTC) :::Although it has TS strength, it's headed up into cold water and heavy shear. Still, heavy rain is dousing Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, several inches in fact, but don't expect anything tropical. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:11, 14 August 2008 (UTC) Potential AoI: NE of French Guiana It looks rather well-developed on satellite, but most models don't support this and it's probably too far south. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:08, 13 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: Southeast of Cape Hatteras Expected to follow that other AoI up the gulf stream, half the models develop a TD, but CMC especially puts it at a cat. 2 landfall on Newfoundland. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:00, 14 August 2008 (UTC Week Three AoI: Gulf of Texas This could perhaps follow the gulf stream and affect Fay. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:14, 17 August 2008 (UTC) :There is no geographical feature called "the Gulf of Texas." And this disturbance seems to ride in that same mysterious dimension. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:20, 19 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: Central Atlantic Hello? This may look like 94L but most models develop it as a separate system. Is everyone at school or something but unless you're American then it usually wouldn't start until Spetember anyway. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:20, 18 August 2008 (UTC) :For once i agree. the low ESE of 94L is forming convection and has a chance, unless it is squashed by that massive wave about to move off behind it. -Winter123 07:24, 19 August 2008 (UTC) ::I'm surprised this isn't an invest yet, it has wrap-around cyclonic-like bands, could interact with 94L and push it southwards. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:01, 20 August 2008 (UTC) NOAA august forecasts http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080807_hurricaneoutlook.html In short, 14-18 named (12-16 in May forecast), 7-10 'canes, (6-9 in May), 3-6 majors (2-5 in May). 85% chance of above-average instead of 65% in May. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:06, 8 August 2008 (UTC) RESPONSE TO INVEST 99.L IS OVER FLORIDA-MYSTERIOUS PREDICTIONS AHEAD. :Here's my revised prediction for the year, based on what already happened, but will likely be less accurate than the NOAA forecast: 20 tropical storms, of which 1 is subtropical and 1 not discovered until the re-analysis; 2 TDs which never become named; 9 hurricanes, of which 5 are major and 1 cat. 5; 4 landfalling hurricanes, of which 3 make US landfall; 2 retired storms; 7 Cape Verde storms; 4 storms whose remnants hit S. Ontario; and 13 landfalling storms. However, my predictions will probably be massively incorrect. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:18, 8 August 2008 (UTC) ::Given the current active trend, I see an active year, but not that active. I say 16 storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major ones, no subtropical or Cat 5s, 4-5 US landfalls, 2-3 landfalling US hurricanes but more hurricane landfalls elsewhere and 1-2 retired names. I actually think this might be a bit aggressive. The big variable for me is late season activity; will this active trend be able to extend into October. It did in 2005 but did not in 2004 (only three storms forming after September, only Matthew was of tropical origin). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:36, 9 August 2008 (UTC) Are dire predictions the norm here? I'm an on-again off-again lurker but during the active season it seems like there is at least one person here who prognosticates cataclysmic scenarios of Katrina-esque proportions every time a thunderhead rolls off the African coast. Some of the above seems to follow that trend :p Albireo 20:55, 13 August 2008 (UTC) :For some people, they seem to be. Not everyone though. - Salak 05:37, 14 August 2008 (UTC) ::I don't know what you mean by "the above" - the original set of predictions are those of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The others...Astro's is probably a little high, but mostly close to the predictions of the NOAA (20 storms is a little above the max NOAA prediction, but 9 hurricanes and 5 major is within the limits of NOAA's prediction), and Skyfury is mostly about the middle ground of NOAA's. (16 is in the middle of NOAA's 14-18, 8 is a little below the middle of 7-10, and 4 is a little below the middle of 3-6) --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 23:12, 15 August 2008 (UTC) :::Re-revised forecast! The changes made were: 10 hurricanes, 6 landfalling hurricanes, 4 US landfalling hurricanes, 3 retired names, and 10 Cape Verde storms. I would also like to back up my previous predictions: 20 storms is because: 1 in May and June, 3 in July, 5 in August, 7 in September, 3 in October, and 1 in November and December; and 1 cat 5 is because there have been 4 years with cat 5s in the past 6 years, with an average of more than 1 per year, and there is no indication that this year is below average compared to the past 6 years. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:10, 16 August 2008 (UTC) Week Four Potential AoI: Southeast of Nova Scotia This is just a trough, but it could punch a hole in the high, or it might even develop a system of its own but that's unlikely. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:26, 22 August 2008 (UTC) 98L.INVEST AoI: West of Cape Verde Nearly all models predict something significant out of this. Could head far north, however, due to the decaying high. Anyone have lightning data for West Africa, because most storms that can develop into hurricanes have a good amount of lightning. 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:02, 24 August 2008 (UTC) :NHC's got this thing on medium risk now. --Patteroast 12:30, 26 August 2008 (UTC) ::The system behind it, which is currently over land, may have a better chance than this one. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:52, 26 August 2008 (UTC) :::Doesn't look like much has changed, but for some reason it's back at medium risk again from NHC. --Patteroast 01:18, 29 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Not sure why; the conditions aren't great and the shower activity is decidedly unimpressive. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:11, 29 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Hmm. Back to low risk. Not sure what that was about. --Patteroast 07:00, 29 August 2008 (UTC) 98L.INVEST Now an invest. Will probably be sucked up into the gap in the high. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:54, 31 August 2008 (UTC) :...and into oblivion. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:43, 31 August 2008 (UTC) AoI: NE of Puerto Rico This one's between Gustav and 95L and NHC has it as low-risk, and maybe the three systems will have Fuj***** and an uh-oh will occur. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:51, 26 August 2008 (UTC) 96L.INVEST AoI: Bay of Campeche Low-risk, turn to Tehuantepec AoI for tracking. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:17, 28 August 2008 (UTC) 96L.INVEST Now at medium risk. Albireo 18:41, 28 August 2008 (UTC) :TCFA'ed. --Patteroast 20:53, 28 August 2008 (UTC) ::Down to low risk now, though. Its chance may have passed. --Patteroast 01:16, 29 August 2008 (UTC) :::If it could get off the beach, it might have a chance, but with that trough retreating westward, I don't think it's gonna be able to do that. May have a chance at being a depression. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 05:13, 29 August 2008 (UTC) ::::I think it's done... looks like nothing on NRL, and it's not even listed on NHC anymore. --Patteroast 07:02, 29 August 2008 (UTC)